New Jersey Devils at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils
Red Wings- Robby FabbriGoals1
- Daniel SprongAssists2
- Robby FabbriPoints2
Scoring summary
- P29:05Moritz Seider Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Daniel Sprong (7), Jake Walman (4)0–4
- P118:10Robby Fabbri Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Daniel Sprong (6), Joe Veleno (3)0–3
- P117:18Dylan Larkin Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Alex DeBrincat (7)0–2
- P116:58Lucas Raymond Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Robby Fabbri (1), J.T. Compher (11)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:58Lucas Raymond Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Robby Fabbri (1), J.T. Compher (11)NJ 0 – 1 DET · DET 54% → 71% +16DET 54% → 71%+16 pts
- P117:18Dylan Larkin Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Alex DeBrincat (7)NJ 0 – 2 DET · DET 71% → 84% +13DET 71% → 84%+13 pts
- P118:10Robby Fabbri Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Daniel Sprong (6), Joe Veleno (3)NJ 0 – 3 DET · DET 84% → 92% +8DET 84% → 92%+8 pts
- P29:05Moritz Seider Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Daniel Sprong (7), Jake Walman (4)NJ 0 – 4 DET · DET 95% → 98% +4DET 95% → 98%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Wings 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 56%
- Fair odds
- DET -123
- NJ +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.0 – 3.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +1 | NJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +41 Elo | DET 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.67th of 31 |
| 28th of 313.9 | Goals allowed | 3.420th of 31 |
| 19th of 31−0.1 | Margin | +0.213th of 31 |
| 11th of 3151.7% | Shot share | 50.7%13th of 31 |
| 28th of 3188.6% | Save percentage | 89.6%19th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 31 |
| 6th of 315–3 | Road vs home | 5–413th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NJ 1–0 DET in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.