Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- John TavaresGoals1
- John TavaresAssists2
- John TavaresPoints3
Red Wings- Daniel SprongGoals1
- Ben ChiarotAssists1
- Daniel SprongPoints1
Scoring summary
- P314:27John Tavares Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (4), William Nylander (14)3–2
- P313:03William Nylander Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (13), John Tavares (12)2–2
- P33:50Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: William Nylander (13), John Tavares (11)1–2
- P214:44Lucas Raymond Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Ben Chiarot (5), Alex DeBrincat (6)0–2
- P212:52Daniel Sprong Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:52Daniel Sprong Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTOR 0 – 1 DET · DET 47% → 68% +21DET 47% → 68%+21 pts
- P214:44Lucas Raymond Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Ben Chiarot (5), Alex DeBrincat (6)TOR 0 – 2 DET · DET 69% → 85% +17DET 69% → 85%+17 pts
- P33:50Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: William Nylander (13), John Tavares (11)TOR 1 – 2 DET · TOR 9% → 26% +17TOR 9% → 26%+17 pts
- P313:03William Nylander Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (13), John Tavares (12)TOR 2 – 2 DET · TOR 15% → 51% +36TOR 15% → 51%+36 pts
- P314:27John Tavares Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (4), William Nylander (14)TOR 3 – 2 DET · TOR 51% → 89% +38TOR 51% → 89%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Maple Leafs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 53%
- Fair odds
- TOR -118
- DET +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.3 – 3.0 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Rest | — | −30 | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −5 | 0 | TOR: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Lyon (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +23 Elo | TOR 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.76th of 31 |
| 25th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.419th of 31 |
| 15th of 31+0.1 | Margin | +0.311th of 31 |
| 13th of 3150.9% | Shot share | 50.7%14th of 31 |
| 24th of 3189.2% | Save percentage | 89.6%19th of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.