Detroit Red Wings at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Shayne GostisbehereGoals1
- Shayne GostisbehereAssists2
- Shayne GostisbeherePoints3
Senators- Brady TkachukGoals2
- Tim StutzleAssists2
- Tim StutzlePoints3
Scoring summary
- OT4:58Tim Stützle Goal (4) Batted, assists: Drake Batherson (6), Jake Sanderson (8)4–5
- P217:12Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (10), Olli Maatta (4)4–4
- P216:33Alex DeBrincat Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (8), J.T. Compher (9)3–4
- P213:20David Perron Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Olli Maatta (3), Shayne Gostisbehere (7)2–4
- P29:39Lucas Raymond Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–4
- P21:18Josh Norris Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathieu Joseph (9), Vladimir Tarasenko (10)0–4
- P113:09Jake Sanderson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (9), Josh Norris (4)0–3
- P19:57Brady Tkachuk Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (16), Claude Giroux (11)0–2
- P15:57Brady Tkachuk Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Drake Batherson (5), Tim Stützle (15)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:57Brady Tkachuk Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Drake Batherson (5), Tim Stützle (15)DET 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 49% → 64% +15OTT 49% → 64%+15 pts
- P19:57Brady Tkachuk Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (16), Claude Giroux (11)DET 0 – 2 OTT · OTT 65% → 78% +13OTT 65% → 78%+13 pts
- P216:33Alex DeBrincat Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (8), J.T. Compher (9)DET 3 – 4 OTT · DET 12% → 28% +16DET 12% → 28%+16 pts
- P217:12Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (10), Olli Maatta (4)DET 4 – 4 OTT · DET 28% → 50% +22DET 28% → 50%+22 pts
- OT4:58Tim Stützle Goal (4) Batted, assists: Drake Batherson (6), Jake Sanderson (8)DET 4 – 5 OTT · OTT 50% → 100% +50OTT 50% → 100%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Wings 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 53%
- Fair odds
- DET -103
- OTT +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.2 – 3.1 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Starting goalies | +17 | −2 | DET: James Reimer: team allows 0.41 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +23 Elo | DET 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.82nd of 31 |
| 17th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.420th of 31 |
| 11th of 31+0.4 | Margin | +0.510th of 31 |
| 14th of 3150.4% | Shot share | 52.8%9th of 31 |
| 17th of 3190.0% | Save percentage | 88.8%26th of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 1–0 OTT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.