New York Rangers at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Jimmy VeseyGoals2
- Vincent TrocheckAssists3
- Vincent TrocheckPoints3
Devils- Jack HughesGoals1
- Dougie HamiltonAssists2
- Jack HughesPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:27Blake Wheeler Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none5–3
- P317:11Jimmy Vesey Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Tyler Pitlick (2), Vincent Trocheck (10)4–3
- P311:04Artemi Panarin Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (9)3–3
- P31:17Erik Haula Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Jack Hughes (16), Dougie Hamilton (9)2–3
- P119:12Ondrej Palat Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (15), Tyler Toffoli (7)2–2
- P114:11Jimmy Vesey Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Braden Schneider (3), Zac Jones (2)2–1
- P19:25Jack Hughes Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Dougie Hamilton (8), Jonas Siegenthaler (4)1–1
- P18:37Artemi Panarin Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (8), Erik Gustafsson (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:11Jimmy Vesey Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Braden Schneider (3), Zac Jones (2)NYR 2 – 1 NJ · NYR 46% → 63% +16NYR 46% → 63%+16 pts
- P119:12Ondrej Palat Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (15), Tyler Toffoli (7)NYR 2 – 2 NJ · NJ 36% → 53% +17NJ 36% → 53%+17 pts
- P31:17Erik Haula Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Jack Hughes (16), Dougie Hamilton (9)NYR 2 – 3 NJ · NJ 52% → 76% +24NJ 52% → 76%+24 pts
- P311:04Artemi Panarin Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (9)NYR 3 – 3 NJ · NYR 16% → 48% +32NYR 16% → 48%+32 pts
- P317:11Jimmy Vesey Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Tyler Pitlick (2), Vincent Trocheck (10)NYR 4 – 3 NJ · NYR 49% → 95% +46NYR 49% → 95%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Devils 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 51%
- Fair odds
- NJ -119
- NYR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 3.3 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | 0 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +8 Elo | NJ 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.83rd of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.3 | Goals allowed | 3.828th of 31 |
| 4th of 31+1.2 | Margin | 0.016th of 31 |
| 17th of 3149.4% | Shot share | 51.9%11th of 31 |
| 6th of 3191.9% | Save percentage | 88.6%28th of 31 |
| 1st of 319–1 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 3rd of 316–2 | Road vs home | 3–316th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.