Philadelphia Flyers at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors NYI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers
IslandersScoring summary
- SO0:00Tyson Foerster Goal Wrist Shot1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flyers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Fair odds
- PHI -101
- NYI +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.2 – 3.2 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | NYI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −16 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.39 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +25 Elo | PHI 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 50.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 31 |
| 9th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.419th of 31 |
| 12th of 31+0.3 | Margin | −0.624th of 31 |
| 4th of 3154.2% | Shot share | 45.6%28th of 31 |
| 20th of 3189.5% | Save percentage | 91.5%7th of 31 |
| 5th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Road vs home | 3–626th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 0–1 NYI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.