New York Rangers at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Mika ZibanejadGoals2
- Blake WheelerAssists2
- Mika ZibanejadPoints2
Flyers- Sean CouturierGoals1
- Nick SeelerAssists1
- Sean CouturierPoints1
Scoring summary
- P217:39Sean Couturier Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Nick Seeler (5), Cam Atkinson (6)3–1
- P27:41Mika Zibanejad Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Blake Wheeler (4), Erik Gustafsson (10)3–0
- P11:53Chris Kreider Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–0
- P10:45Mika Zibanejad Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Wheeler (3), Chris Kreider (6)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:45Mika Zibanejad Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Wheeler (3), Chris Kreider (6)NYR 1 – 0 PHI · NYR 45% → 60% +15NYR 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P11:53Chris Kreider Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYR 2 – 0 PHI · NYR 60% → 73% +13NYR 60% → 73%+13 pts
- P27:41Mika Zibanejad Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Blake Wheeler (4), Erik Gustafsson (10)NYR 3 – 0 PHI · NYR 82% → 92% +10NYR 82% → 92%+10 pts
- P217:39Sean Couturier Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Nick Seeler (5), Cam Atkinson (6)NYR 3 – 1 PHI · PHI 4% → 13% +9PHI 4% → 13%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flyers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Fair odds
- PHI -123
- NYR +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 3.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +12 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PHI: Carter Hart: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +37 Elo | PHI 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.315th of 31 |
| 3rd of 312.4 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 31 |
| 5th of 31+0.9 | Margin | +0.411th of 31 |
| 18th of 3149.6% | Shot share | 53.5%5th of 31 |
| 5th of 3192.1% | Save percentage | 89.7%18th of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 3rd of 318–3 | Road vs home | 5–412th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.