Vegas Golden Knights at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Jonathan MarchessaultGoals2
- Shea TheodoreAssists2
- Jonathan MarchessaultPoints3
Flyers- Sean CouturierGoals1
- Travis SanheimAssists2
- Sean CouturierPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:00Sean Couturier Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–4
- P219:05Jonathan Marchessault Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (13), Shea Theodore (14)3–3
- P215:25Sean Walker Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Seeler (4), Sean Couturier (9)2–3
- P215:00Jonathan Marchessault Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Shea Theodore (13), Jack Eichel (12)2–2
- P24:01William Karlsson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (4)1–2
- P20:59Tyson Foerster Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Sanheim (14), Owen Tippett (6)0–2
- P115:29Owen Tippett Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Sanheim (13), Cam Atkinson (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:29Owen Tippett Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Sanheim (13), Cam Atkinson (5)VGK 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 54% → 70% +16PHI 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P215:00Jonathan Marchessault Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Shea Theodore (13), Jack Eichel (12)VGK 2 – 2 PHI · VGK 26% → 47% +21VGK 26% → 47%+21 pts
- P215:25Sean Walker Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Seeler (4), Sean Couturier (9)VGK 2 – 3 PHI · PHI 53% → 74% +21PHI 53% → 74%+21 pts
- P219:05Jonathan Marchessault Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (13), Shea Theodore (14)VGK 3 – 3 PHI · VGK 24% → 47% +23VGK 24% → 47%+23 pts
- OT1:00Sean Couturier Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: noneVGK 3 – 4 PHI · PHI 51% → 93% +41PHI 51% → 93%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flyers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Fair odds
- PHI -122
- VGK +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.0 – 3.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +15 | VGK: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PHI: Carter Hart: team allows 0.38 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +35 Elo | PHI 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.8 | Goals scored | 3.216th of 31 |
| 3rd of 312.4 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 31 |
| 2nd of 31+1.4 | Margin | +0.313th of 31 |
| 12th of 3151.3% | Shot share | 53.0%8th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3192.6% | Save percentage | 89.6%17th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 5th of 315–2 | Road vs home | 3–421st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VGK 1–0 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.