Columbus Blue Jackets at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Alexandre TexierGoals1
- Sean KuralyAssists1
- Boone JennerPoints1
Flyers- Ryan PoehlingGoals1
- Ryan PoehlingAssists2
- Ryan PoehlingPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:34Cam York Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (3)2–5
- P312:40Travis Konecny Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Louie Belpedio (2)2–4
- P217:57Boone Jenner Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Ivan Provorov (11)2–3
- P26:41Ryan Poehling Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Garnet Hathaway (1), Sean Walker (7)1–3
- P21:11Bobby Brink Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Walker (6), Joel Farabee (7)1–2
- P115:02Alexandre Texier Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Kuraly (3), Mathieu Olivier (3)1–1
- P15:11Joel Farabee Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Ryan Poehling (2), Cam York (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:11Joel Farabee Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Ryan Poehling (2), Cam York (4)CBJ 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 56% → 70% +14PHI 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P115:02Alexandre Texier Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Kuraly (3), Mathieu Olivier (3)CBJ 1 – 1 PHI · CBJ 29% → 45% +16CBJ 29% → 45%+16 pts
- P21:11Bobby Brink Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Walker (6), Joel Farabee (7)CBJ 1 – 2 PHI · PHI 55% → 72% +17PHI 55% → 72%+17 pts
- P26:41Ryan Poehling Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Garnet Hathaway (1), Sean Walker (7)CBJ 1 – 3 PHI · PHI 73% → 86% +14PHI 73% → 86%+14 pts
- P217:57Boone Jenner Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Ivan Provorov (11)CBJ 2 – 3 PHI · CBJ 10% → 24% +15CBJ 10% → 24%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flyers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 59%
- Fair odds
- PHI -126
- CBJ +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.0 – 3.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | PHI and CBJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −9 | CBJ: Spencer Martin: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +63 Elo | PHI 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.216th of 31 |
| 26th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 31 |
| 28th of 31−0.9 | Margin | +0.311th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3148.4% | Shot share | 53.1%7th of 31 |
| 16th of 3190.0% | Save percentage | 89.7%17th of 31 |
| 31st of 311–9 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 30th of 311–7 | Road vs home | 4–415th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CBJ 0–1 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.