Philadelphia Flyers at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Cam YorkGoals1
- Ryan PoehlingAssists1
- Joel FarabeePoints1
Islanders- Brock NelsonGoals2
- Adam PelechAssists2
- Brock NelsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:56Joel Farabee Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Bobby Brink (6)2–3
- P32:33Brock Nelson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre Engvall (9), Adam Pelech (3)1–3
- P214:18Cam York Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Owen Tippett (7), Ryan Poehling (4)1–2
- P213:10Brock Nelson Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Adam Pelech (2), Pierre Engvall (8)0–2
- P11:49Anders Lee Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Wahlstrom (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:49Anders Lee Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Wahlstrom (2)PHI 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 53% → 67% +14NYI 53% → 67%+14 pts
- P213:10Brock Nelson Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Adam Pelech (2), Pierre Engvall (8)PHI 0 – 2 NYI · NYI 72% → 87% +15NYI 72% → 87%+15 pts
- P214:18Cam York Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Owen Tippett (7), Ryan Poehling (4)PHI 1 – 2 NYI · PHI 12% → 27% +15PHI 12% → 27%+15 pts
- P32:33Brock Nelson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre Engvall (9), Adam Pelech (3)PHI 1 – 3 NYI · NYI 76% → 92% +15NYI 76% → 92%+15 pts
- P315:56Joel Farabee Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Bobby Brink (6)PHI 2 – 3 NYI · PHI <1% → 8% +8PHI <1% → 8%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Islanders 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 45%
- Fair odds
- NYI -113
- PHI +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.1 – 3.2 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +14 | −20 | PHI: Carter Hart: team allows 0.34 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.51 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +34 Elo | PHI 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 53.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 31 |
| 11th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.522nd of 31 |
| 10th of 31+0.4 | Margin | −0.826th of 31 |
| 6th of 3153.2% | Shot share | 45.9%28th of 31 |
| 18th of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 91.3%9th of 31 |
| 8th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 31 |
| 11th of 315–4 | Road vs home | 2–629th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.