New York Rangers at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Alexis LafreniereGoals1
- Mika ZibanejadAssists1
- Alexis LafrenierePoints1
PenguinsScoring summary
- P15:10Alexis Lafrenière Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Mika Zibanejad (9)1–0
Turning points
The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:10Alexis Lafrenière Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Mika Zibanejad (9)NYR 1 – 0 PIT · NYR 46% → 61% +15NYR 46% → 61%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Penguins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 53%
- Fair odds
- PIT -120
- NYR +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 3.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +3 | NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +18 Elo | PIT 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.414th of 31 |
| 4th of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 2.78th of 31 |
| 5th of 31+0.9 | Margin | +0.78th of 31 |
| 18th of 3149.3% | Shot share | 52.6%9th of 31 |
| 7th of 3191.5% | Save percentage | 91.9%6th of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 31 |
| 4th of 317–3 | Road vs home | 4–518th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.