Vegas Golden Knights at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights
Penguins- Ryan GravesGoals1
- Kris LetangAssists1
- Evgeni MalkinPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:42Evgeni Malkin Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (15), Kris Letang (9)0–3
- P211:39Noel Acciari Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Nieto (1)0–2
- P12:13Ryan Graves Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Radim Zohorna (3), Drew O'Connor (3)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:13Ryan Graves Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Radim Zohorna (3), Drew O'Connor (3)VGK 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 54% → 68% +14PIT 54% → 68%+14 pts
- P211:39Noel Acciari Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Nieto (1)VGK 0 – 2 PIT · PIT 73% → 87% +14PIT 73% → 87%+14 pts
- P318:42Evgeni Malkin Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (15), Kris Letang (9)VGK 0 – 3 PIT · PIT >99% → >99% +0PIT >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Penguins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 50%
- Fair odds
- PIT -118
- VGK +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.0 – 3.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | PIT and VGK on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −3 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +3 Elo | PIT 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 54.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.413th of 31 |
| 3rd of 312.4 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 31 |
| 3rd of 31+1.3 | Margin | +0.68th of 31 |
| 13th of 3150.9% | Shot share | 53.1%8th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3192.4% | Save percentage | 91.2%11th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 7th of 315–3 | Road vs home | 3–523rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.