New York Rangers at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Barclay GoodrowGoals1
- Jacob TroubaAssists2
- Jacob TroubaPoints2
Stars- Roope HintzGoals1
- Roope HintzAssists2
- Roope HintzPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:44Barclay Goodrow Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Braden Schneider (4), Jacob Trouba (6)3–6
- P317:04Roope Hintz Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Seguin (8)2–6
- P316:30Sam Steel Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–5
- P38:24Tyler Seguin Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (6)2–4
- P37:06Mason Marchment Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (7), Matt Duchene (9)2–3
- P31:01Joe Pavelski Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (11), Roope Hintz (9)2–2
- P214:23Jamie Benn Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (9), Roope Hintz (8)2–1
- P213:38Kaapo Kakko Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Bonino (1), Jacob Trouba (5)2–0
- P116:25Vincent Trocheck Goal (5) Wrap-around, assists: Chris Kreider (5), Erik Gustafsson (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:25Vincent Trocheck Goal (5) Wrap-around, assists: Chris Kreider (5), Erik Gustafsson (9)NYR 1 – 0 DAL · NYR 46% → 63% +17NYR 46% → 63%+17 pts
- P213:38Kaapo Kakko Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Bonino (1), Jacob Trouba (5)NYR 2 – 0 DAL · NYR 68% → 85% +16NYR 68% → 85%+16 pts
- P214:23Jamie Benn Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (9), Roope Hintz (8)NYR 2 – 1 DAL · DAL 15% → 31% +16DAL 15% → 31%+16 pts
- P31:01Joe Pavelski Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (11), Roope Hintz (9)NYR 2 – 2 DAL · DAL 28% → 52% +25DAL 28% → 52%+25 pts
- P37:06Mason Marchment Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (7), Matt Duchene (9)NYR 2 – 3 DAL · DAL 52% → 80% +28DAL 52% → 80%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Stars 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 51%
- Fair odds
- DAL -118
- NYR +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 3.3 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −11 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · DAL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +6 Elo | DAL 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.414th of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.4 | Goals allowed | 2.810th of 31 |
| 3rd of 31+1.2 | Margin | +0.68th of 31 |
| 18th of 3149.5% | Shot share | 47.9%25th of 31 |
| 7th of 3191.8% | Save percentage | 92.1%5th of 31 |
| 1st of 319–1 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 2nd of 317–2 | Road vs home | 3–316th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.