Dallas Stars at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Wyatt JohnstonGoals2
- Miro HeiskanenAssists3
- Jason RobertsonPoints3
Wild- Mats ZuccarelloGoals1
- Matt BoldyAssists1
- Mats ZuccarelloPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:57Wyatt Johnston Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (8)8–3
- P33:09Jason Robertson Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (9), Roope Hintz (7)7–3
- P31:02Jason Robertson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (8), Jamie Benn (7)6–3
- P215:59Mats Zuccarello Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (10), Matt Boldy (7)5–3
- P212:11Evgenii Dadonov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (6), Nils Lundkvist (5)5–2
- P22:34Wyatt Johnston Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (6), Tyler Seguin (6)4–2
- P119:12Vinni Lettieri Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (3), Jonas Brodin (6)3–2
- P110:52Matt Duchene Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Mason Marchment (3), Tyler Seguin (5)3–1
- P110:38Brandon Duhaime Goal (4) Backhand, assists: none2–1
- P19:49Radek Faksa Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–0
- P10:57Joe Pavelski Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Miro Heiskanen (7), Jason Robertson (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:57Joe Pavelski Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Miro Heiskanen (7), Jason Robertson (8)DAL 1 – 0 MIN · DAL 42% → 56% +15DAL 42% → 56%+15 pts
- P110:38Brandon Duhaime Goal (4) Backhand, assists: noneDAL 2 – 1 MIN · MIN 27% → 41% +15MIN 27% → 41%+15 pts
- P110:52Matt Duchene Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Mason Marchment (3), Tyler Seguin (5)DAL 3 – 1 MIN · DAL 59% → 73% +15DAL 59% → 73%+15 pts
- P119:12Vinni Lettieri Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (3), Jonas Brodin (6)DAL 3 – 2 MIN · MIN 24% → 39% +16MIN 24% → 39%+16 pts
- P22:34Wyatt Johnston Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (6), Tyler Seguin (6)DAL 4 – 2 MIN · DAL 62% → 78% +16DAL 62% → 78%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wild 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 54%
- Fair odds
- MIN -139
- DAL +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.9 – 3.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +13 | −1 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.32 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +26 Elo | MIN 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 58.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.413th of 31 |
| 5th of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 4.030th of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.5 | Margin | −0.625th of 31 |
| 24th of 3147.5% | Shot share | 49.8%16th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3192.8% | Save percentage | 88.3%30th of 31 |
| 3rd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 31 |
| 4th of 316–2 | Road vs home | 3–314th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.