New York Islanders at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Oliver WahlstromGoals1
- Alexander RomanovAssists2
- Kyle PalmieriPoints2
Senators- Drake BathersonGoals2
- Mathieu JosephAssists2
- Drake BathersonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P35:18Simon Holmstrom Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (11), Scott Mayfield (2)5–3
- P211:43Drake Batherson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (17), Mathieu Joseph (11)4–3
- P210:56Tim Stützle Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathieu Joseph (10)4–2
- P29:57Anders Lee Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Wahlstrom (3)4–1
- P29:51Mathew Barzal Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (7), Brock Nelson (6)3–1
- P26:22Oliver Wahlstrom Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Romanov (2), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (6)2–1
- P113:55Kyle Palmieri Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (5), Alexander Romanov (1)1–1
- P110:25Drake Batherson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (5), Josh Norris (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:55Kyle Palmieri Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (5), Alexander Romanov (1)NYI 1 – 1 OTT · NYI 30% → 45% +16NYI 30% → 45%+16 pts
- P26:22Oliver Wahlstrom Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Romanov (2), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (6)NYI 2 – 1 OTT · NYI 46% → 65% +19NYI 46% → 65%+19 pts
- P29:51Mathew Barzal Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (7), Brock Nelson (6)NYI 3 – 1 OTT · NYI 66% → 82% +16NYI 66% → 82%+16 pts
- P211:43Drake Batherson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (17), Mathieu Joseph (11)NYI 4 – 3 OTT · OTT 17% → 33% +16OTT 17% → 33%+16 pts
- P35:18Simon Holmstrom Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (11), Scott Mayfield (2)NYI 5 – 3 OTT · NYI 75% → 92% +17NYI 75% → 92%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Senators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 57%
- Fair odds
- OTT -124
- NYI +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.0 – 3.3 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +17 | +6 | NYI: Semyon Varlamov: team allows 0.42 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +47 Elo | OTT 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.7 | Goals scored | 3.83rd of 31 |
| 20th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.318th of 31 |
| 27th of 31−0.7 | Margin | +0.59th of 31 |
| 28th of 3145.6% | Shot share | 52.4%8th of 31 |
| 7th of 3191.5% | Save percentage | 89.4%23rd of 31 |
| 26th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313–5 | Road vs home | 4–519th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYI 1–0 OTT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.