Minnesota Wild at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Marco RossiGoals1
- Mats ZuccarelloAssists1
- Marco RossiPoints1
Senators- Erik BrannstromGoals1
- Travis HamonicAssists1
- Erik BrannstromPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Josh Norris Goal Wrist Shot0–1
- P33:22Erik Brannstrom Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Anton Forsberg (1), Travis Hamonic (2)1–1
- P26:22Marco Rossi Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Brock Faber (6), Mats Zuccarello (13)1–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:22Marco Rossi Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Brock Faber (6), Mats Zuccarello (13)MIN 1 – 0 OTT · MIN 49% → 68% +19MIN 49% → 68%+19 pts
- P33:22Erik Brannstrom Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Anton Forsberg (1), Travis Hamonic (2)MIN 1 – 1 OTT · OTT 25% → 50% +26OTT 25% → 50%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Senators 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 55%
- Fair odds
- OTT -104
- MIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.1 – 3.2 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Starting goalies | −16 | −3 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.39 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +32 Elo | OTT 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 50.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.92nd of 31 |
| 30th of 314.3 | Goals allowed | 3.420th of 31 |
| 28th of 31−0.9 | Margin | +0.59th of 31 |
| 19th of 3149.3% | Shot share | 52.2%10th of 31 |
| 31st of 3187.5% | Save percentage | 89.0%27th of 31 |
| 27th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.