Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Seth JarvisGoals1
- Sebastian AhoAssists2
- Sebastian AhoPoints2
Flyers- Travis KonecnyGoals1
- Tyson FoersterAssists1
- Travis KonecnyPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:16Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Fast (3), Teuvo Teravainen (6)4–1
- P316:34Seth Jarvis Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (14), Michael Bunting (9)3–1
- P213:25Brendan Lemieux Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P27:14Travis Konecny Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyson Foerster (4)1–1
- P15:39Michael Bunting Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (13), Dmitry Orlov (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:39Michael Bunting Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (13), Dmitry Orlov (7)CAR 1 – 0 PHI · CAR 45% → 60% +15CAR 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P27:14Travis Konecny Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyson Foerster (4)CAR 1 – 1 PHI · PHI 34% → 54% +19PHI 34% → 54%+19 pts
- P213:25Brendan Lemieux Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCAR 2 – 1 PHI · CAR 47% → 68% +21CAR 47% → 68%+21 pts
- P316:34Seth Jarvis Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (14), Michael Bunting (9)CAR 3 – 1 PHI · CAR 93% → >99% +7CAR 93% → >99%+7 pts
- P317:16Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Fast (3), Teuvo Teravainen (6)CAR 4 – 1 PHI · CAR >99% → >99% +0CAR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flyers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Fair odds
- PHI -122
- CAR +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.0 – 3.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +13 | +11 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.33 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · PHI: Carter Hart: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +34 Elo | PHI 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 31 |
| 17th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 31 |
| 17th of 310.0 | Margin | +0.312th of 31 |
| 1st of 3157.4% | Shot share | 54.6%3rd of 31 |
| 31st of 3187.3% | Save percentage | 89.9%20th of 31 |
| 4th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 31 |
| 17th of 315–6 | Road vs home | 5–515th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CAR 1–1 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.