Columbus Blue Jackets at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Johnny GaudreauGoals1
- Johnny GaudreauAssists1
- Johnny GaudreauPoints2
Hurricanes- Andrei SvechnikovGoals1
- Seth JarvisAssists2
- Andrei SvechnikovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:05Andrei Svechnikov Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (12), Seth Jarvis (9)2–3
- P316:51Brady Skjei Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (8), Seth Jarvis (8)2–2
- P310:01Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (5), Martin Necas (8)2–1
- P36:41Johnny Gaudreau Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: none2–0
- P30:13Kirill Marchenko Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P30:13Kirill Marchenko Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (8)CBJ 1 – 0 CAR · CBJ 46% → 71% +24CBJ 46% → 71%+24 pts
- P36:41Johnny Gaudreau Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: noneCBJ 2 – 0 CAR · CBJ 76% → 93% +17CBJ 76% → 93%+17 pts
- P310:01Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (5), Martin Necas (8)CBJ 2 – 1 CAR · CAR 4% → 20% +16CAR 4% → 20%+16 pts
- P316:51Brady Skjei Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (8), Seth Jarvis (8)CBJ 2 – 2 CAR · CAR 6% → 51% +45CAR 6% → 51%+45 pts
- P318:05Andrei Svechnikov Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (12), Seth Jarvis (9)CBJ 2 – 3 CAR · CAR 51% → 98% +47CAR 51% → 98%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hurricanes 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 61%
- Fair odds
- CAR -128
- CBJ +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.0 – 3.3 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +10 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +76 Elo | CAR 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 56.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.414th of 31 |
| 26th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.420th of 31 |
| 25th of 31−0.6 | Margin | −0.118th of 31 |
| 26th of 3147.7% | Shot share | 56.9%1st of 31 |
| 17th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 87.2%31st of 31 |
| 30th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 30th of 312–8 | Road vs home | 6–26th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.