Chicago Blackhawks at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Jason DickinsonGoals1
- Isaak PhillipsAssists1
- Jason DickinsonPoints1
Blue Jackets- Boone JennerGoals2
- Zach WerenskiAssists4
- Zach WerenskiPoints4
Scoring summary
- P318:41Reese Johnson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: MacKenzie Entwistle (2)3–7
- P36:06Jason Dickinson Goal (3) Backhand, assists: none2–7
- P218:40Patrik Laine Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Adam Fantilli (6)1–7
- P216:28Kirill Marchenko Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Adam Boqvist (2), Ivan Provorov (12)1–6
- P212:16Dmitri Voronkov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (7), Zach Werenski (14)1–5
- P27:32Cole Sillinger Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Zach Werenski (13), Yegor Chinakhov (1)1–4
- P115:41Connor Bedard Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (7), Isaak Phillips (1)1–3
- P113:55Boone Jenner Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (6), Zach Werenski (12)0–3
- P16:46Erik Gudbranson Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (6)0–2
- P12:57Boone Jenner Goal (9) Wrap-around, assists: Zach Werenski (11), Adam Boqvist (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:57Boone Jenner Goal (9) Wrap-around, assists: Zach Werenski (11), Adam Boqvist (1)CHI 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 54% → 68% +14CBJ 54% → 68%+14 pts
- P16:46Erik Gudbranson Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (6)CHI 0 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 69% → 81% +12CBJ 69% → 81%+12 pts
- P113:55Boone Jenner Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (6), Zach Werenski (12)CHI 0 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 82% → 91% +9CBJ 82% → 91%+9 pts
- P115:41Connor Bedard Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (7), Isaak Phillips (1)CHI 1 – 3 CBJ · CHI 9% → 17% +9CHI 9% → 17%+9 pts
- P27:32Cole Sillinger Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Zach Werenski (13), Yegor Chinakhov (1)CHI 1 – 4 CBJ · CBJ 86% → 94% +8CBJ 86% → 94%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jackets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 51%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -118
- CHI +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 3.0 – 3.3 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −12 | CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.30 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +5 Elo | CBJ 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 312.6 | Goals scored | 2.726th of 31 |
| 17th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.727th of 31 |
| 23rd of 31−0.6 | Margin | −1.030th of 31 |
| 30th of 3143.8% | Shot share | 48.3%25th of 31 |
| 11th of 3191.2% | Save percentage | 89.7%17th of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 1–931st of 31 |
| 19th of 314–5 | Road vs home | 3–624th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.