Tampa Bay Lightning at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Brayden PointGoals3
- Nikita KucherovAssists4
- Nikita KucherovPoints6
Hurricanes- Stefan NoesenGoals1
- Jack DruryAssists1
- Stefan NoesenPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:08Brayden Point Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (20), Steven Stamkos (14)8–2
- P316:45Nikita Kucherov Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (12), Mikhail Sergachev (13)7–2
- P310:41Brayden Point Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Nick Perbix (5), Cole Koepke (2)6–2
- P36:53Luke Glendening Goal (3) Wrap-around, assists: none5–2
- P35:33Brandon Hagel Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (18), Nikita Kucherov (19)4–2
- P214:45Michael Bunting Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (7)3–2
- P25:54Brayden Point Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (18), Victor Hedman (18)3–1
- P25:40Nikita Kucherov Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (11), Michael Eyssimont (4)2–1
- P21:34Steven Stamkos Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (17), Nikita Kucherov (17)1–1
- P118:12Stefan Noesen Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Drury (3), Michael Bunting (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:12Stefan Noesen Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Drury (3), Michael Bunting (8)TB 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 54% → 71% +16CAR 54% → 71%+16 pts
- P21:34Steven Stamkos Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (17), Nikita Kucherov (17)TB 1 – 1 CAR · TB 29% → 46% +17TB 29% → 46%+17 pts
- P25:40Nikita Kucherov Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (11), Michael Eyssimont (4)TB 2 – 1 CAR · TB 46% → 65% +19TB 46% → 65%+19 pts
- P214:45Michael Bunting Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (7)TB 3 – 2 CAR · CAR 15% → 32% +17CAR 15% → 32%+17 pts
- P35:33Brandon Hagel Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (18), Nikita Kucherov (19)TB 4 – 2 CAR · TB 75% → 92% +17TB 75% → 92%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hurricanes 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 56%
- Fair odds
- CAR -124
- TB +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.0 – 3.3 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | 0 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy (no track record yet) · CAR: Antti Raanta: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +44 Elo | CAR 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.410th of 31 |
| 27th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.216th of 31 |
| 17th of 31−0.1 | Margin | +0.313th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3148.6% | Shot share | 56.7%1st of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.3% | Save percentage | 88.5%29th of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 25th of 313–6 | Road vs home | 6–11st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 1–1 CAR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.