Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals1
- David PastrnakAssists1
- David PastrnakPoints2
Lightning- Brandon HagelGoals1
- Brandon HagelAssists1
- Steven StamkosPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:19Brandon Hagel Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (16)4–5
- P319:55Steven Stamkos Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (15), Brandon Hagel (9)4–4
- P316:09Charlie Coyle Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (8)4–3
- P38:44Austin Watson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (6), Nick Perbix (4)3–3
- P37:47John Beecher Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Danton Heinen (2)3–2
- P36:26David Pastrnak Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Lohrei (2), Charlie McAvoy (10)2–2
- P219:30Nicholas Paul Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (12), Steven Stamkos (13)1–2
- P19:55Pavel Zacha Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (17), Brad Marchand (12)1–1
- P16:39Tanner Jeannot Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Motte (1), Michael Eyssimont (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P37:47John Beecher Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Danton Heinen (2)BOS 3 – 2 TB · BOS 48% → 78% +29BOS 48% → 78%+29 pts
- P38:44Austin Watson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (6), Nick Perbix (4)BOS 3 – 3 TB · TB 21% → 51% +30TB 21% → 51%+30 pts
- P316:09Charlie Coyle Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (8)BOS 4 – 3 TB · BOS 49% → 92% +43BOS 49% → 92%+43 pts
- P319:55Steven Stamkos Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (15), Brandon Hagel (9)BOS 4 – 4 TB · TB 0% → 50% +50TB 0% → 50%+50 pts
- OT1:19Brandon Hagel Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (16)BOS 4 – 5 TB · TB 51% → 93% +42TB 51% → 93%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lightning 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 47%
- Fair odds
- TB -114
- BOS +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.1 – 3.2 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +12 | −6 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.30 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +23 Elo | BOS 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.511th of 31 |
| 1st of 312.0 | Goals allowed | 3.625th of 31 |
| 2nd of 31+1.5 | Margin | −0.118th of 31 |
| 12th of 3151.4% | Shot share | 47.6%26th of 31 |
| 1st of 3193.5% | Save percentage | 89.5%21st of 31 |
| 3rd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 31 |
| 4th of 316–2 | Road vs home | 5–411th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.