Winnipeg Jets at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Josh MorrisseyGoals1
- Josh MorrisseyAssists1
- Josh MorrisseyPoints2
Lightning- Brayden PointGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists1
- Steven StamkosPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:39Adam Lowry Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Neal Pionk (8), Vladislav Namestnikov (8)3–2
- P26:13Brayden Point Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (10)2–2
- P118:06Steven Stamkos Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (16), Victor Hedman (17)2–1
- P113:06Mark Scheifele Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Josh Morrissey (15), Cole Perfetti (9)2–0
- P15:29Josh Morrissey Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan DeMelo (7), Nikolaj Ehlers (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:29Josh Morrissey Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan DeMelo (7), Nikolaj Ehlers (5)WPG 1 – 0 TB · WPG 46% → 61% +15WPG 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P113:06Mark Scheifele Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Josh Morrissey (15), Cole Perfetti (9)WPG 2 – 0 TB · WPG 62% → 77% +14WPG 62% → 77%+14 pts
- P118:06Steven Stamkos Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (16), Victor Hedman (17)WPG 2 – 1 TB · TB 22% → 37% +15TB 22% → 37%+15 pts
- P26:13Brayden Point Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (10)WPG 2 – 2 TB · TB 34% → 53% +19TB 34% → 53%+19 pts
- OT1:39Adam Lowry Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Neal Pionk (8), Vladislav Namestnikov (8)WPG 3 – 2 TB · WPG 49% → 94% +45WPG 49% → 94%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lightning 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 52%
- Fair odds
- TB -119
- WPG +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.0 – 3.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −7 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +13 Elo | TB 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.68th of 31 |
| 18th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.625th of 31 |
| 12th of 31+0.3 | Margin | −0.117th of 31 |
| 6th of 3153.4% | Shot share | 48.5%23rd of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.3% | Save percentage | 89.3%24th of 31 |
| 8th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 13th of 313–3 | Road vs home | 6–410th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.