Columbus Blue Jackets at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Boone JennerGoals1
- Johnny GaudreauAssists1
- Boone JennerPoints1
Devils- Alexander HoltzGoals1
- Ondrej PalatAssists1
- Alexander HoltzPoints1
Scoring summary
- P119:23Eric Robinson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Danforth (4), Erik Gudbranson (7)2–1
- P113:15Alexander Holtz Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ondrej Palat (7)1–1
- P110:04Boone Jenner Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (7)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:04Boone Jenner Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (7)CBJ 1 – 0 NJ · CBJ 45% → 61% +16CBJ 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P113:15Alexander Holtz Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ondrej Palat (7)CBJ 1 – 1 NJ · NJ 38% → 55% +16NJ 38% → 55%+16 pts
- P119:23Eric Robinson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Danforth (4), Erik Gudbranson (7)CBJ 2 – 1 NJ · CBJ 46% → 63% +17CBJ 46% → 63%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Devils 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 56%
- Fair odds
- NJ -123
- CBJ +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.0 – 3.3 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | −25 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · NJ: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.62 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +40 Elo | NJ 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 55.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.57th of 31 |
| 27th of 313.7 | Goals allowed | 3.928th of 31 |
| 28th of 31−0.7 | Margin | −0.422nd of 31 |
| 25th of 3147.9% | Shot share | 51.0%12th of 31 |
| 17th of 3189.8% | Save percentage | 88.4%29th of 31 |
| 30th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 31 |
| 30th of 311–8 | Road vs home | 3–420th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.