Buffalo Sabres at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Jeff SkinnerGoals1
- JJ PeterkaAssists1
- Jeff SkinnerPoints1
Devils- Ondrej PalatGoals1
- Dougie HamiltonAssists2
- Ondrej PalatPoints2
Scoring summary
- P35:38Luke Hughes Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–7
- P33:55Kyle Okposo Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Owen Power (9), JJ Peterka (8)2–6
- P30:50Dawson Mercer Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Dougie Hamilton (11), Jack Hughes (17)1–6
- P22:44Tyler Toffoli Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Holtz (3), Luke Hughes (10)1–5
- P21:53Jeff Skinner Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (8), Casey Mittelstadt (14)1–4
- P118:27Ondrej Palat Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (17), Nico Hischier (1)0–4
- P115:20Nico Hischier Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ondrej Palat (8), Jesper Bratt (16)0–3
- P111:09Tyler Toffoli Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Brendan Smith (1), Dawson Mercer (2)0–2
- P11:31Alexander Holtz Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Haula (6), Dougie Hamilton (10)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:31Alexander Holtz Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Haula (6), Dougie Hamilton (10)BUF 0 – 1 NJ · NJ 55% → 69% +14NJ 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P111:09Tyler Toffoli Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Brendan Smith (1), Dawson Mercer (2)BUF 0 – 2 NJ · NJ 70% → 82% +12NJ 70% → 82%+12 pts
- P115:20Nico Hischier Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ondrej Palat (8), Jesper Bratt (16)BUF 0 – 3 NJ · NJ 83% → 92% +9NJ 83% → 92%+9 pts
- P118:27Ondrej Palat Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (17), Nico Hischier (1)BUF 0 – 4 NJ · NJ 92% → 97% +5NJ 92% → 97%+5 pts
- P21:53Jeff Skinner Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (8), Casey Mittelstadt (14)BUF 1 – 4 NJ · BUF 3% → 7% +4BUF 3% → 7%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Devils 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 54%
- Fair odds
- NJ -122
- BUF +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.0 – 3.3 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | NJ and BUF on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −3 | BUF: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · NJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +30 Elo | NJ 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.414th of 31 |
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.828th of 31 |
| 20th of 31−0.3 | Margin | −0.421st of 31 |
| 21st of 3148.8% | Shot share | 51.4%11th of 31 |
| 19th of 3189.8% | Save percentage | 88.7%28th of 31 |
| 21st of 314–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 31 |
| 22nd of 314–6 | Road vs home | 3–523rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BUF 0–1 NJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.