Pittsburgh Penguins at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Sidney CrosbyGoals1
- Matt NietoAssists1
- Sidney CrosbyPoints1
Sabres- Jeff SkinnerGoals1
- Victor OlofssonAssists2
- Jeff SkinnerPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:16Alex Tuch Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jeff Skinner (7), Casey Mittelstadt (13)2–3
- P310:52Kyle Okposo Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (13), Victor Olofsson (5)2–2
- P35:13Jeff Skinner Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (7), Victor Olofsson (4)2–1
- P216:44Lars Eller Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Nieto (2)2–0
- P116:46Sidney Crosby Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (16)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:46Sidney Crosby Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (16)PIT 1 – 0 BUF · PIT 46% → 63% +17PIT 46% → 63%+17 pts
- P216:44Lars Eller Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Nieto (2)PIT 2 – 0 BUF · PIT 70% → 86% +17PIT 70% → 86%+17 pts
- P35:13Jeff Skinner Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (7), Victor Olofsson (4)PIT 2 – 1 BUF · BUF 8% → 25% +17BUF 8% → 25%+17 pts
- P310:52Kyle Okposo Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (13), Victor Olofsson (5)PIT 2 – 2 BUF · BUF 19% → 52% +33BUF 19% → 52%+33 pts
- P317:16Alex Tuch Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jeff Skinner (7), Casey Mittelstadt (13)PIT 2 – 3 BUF · BUF 51% → 96% +45BUF 51% → 96%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sabres 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 52%
- Fair odds
- BUF -120
- PIT +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 3.3 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | +5 | PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +15 Elo | BUF 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 31 |
| 6th of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.217th of 31 |
| 8th of 31+0.6 | Margin | −0.420th of 31 |
| 9th of 3152.3% | Shot share | 48.7%20th of 31 |
| 4th of 3192.2% | Save percentage | 89.6%19th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 31 |
| 6th of 315–3 | Road vs home | 4–518th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 1–0 BUF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.