New York Islanders at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Mathew BarzalGoals1
- Mathew BarzalAssists2
- Mathew BarzalPoints3
Devils- Jack HughesGoals1
- Jack HughesAssists2
- Jack HughesPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:37Curtis Lazar Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Kevin Bahl (3), Michael McLeod (4)4–5
- P311:10Nico Hischier Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Jack Hughes (19), Luke Hughes (11)4–4
- P35:08Jack Hughes Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (3), Brendan Smith (2)4–3
- P213:05Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (13), Alexander Romanov (3)4–2
- P29:40Cal Clutterbuck Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Casey Cizikas (4), Julien Gauthier (1)3–2
- P28:24Mathew Barzal Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Anders Lee (2), Noah Dobson (13)2–2
- P24:19Dawson Mercer Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (18), Tyler Toffoli (8)1–2
- P110:29Michael McLeod Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Curtis Lazar (3)1–1
- P15:16Bo Horvat Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (12), Mathew Barzal (12)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:19Dawson Mercer Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (18), Tyler Toffoli (8)NYI 1 – 2 NJ · NJ 54% → 72% +18NJ 54% → 72%+18 pts
- P28:24Mathew Barzal Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Anders Lee (2), Noah Dobson (13)NYI 2 – 2 NJ · NYI 27% → 46% +19NYI 27% → 46%+19 pts
- P29:40Cal Clutterbuck Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Casey Cizikas (4), Julien Gauthier (1)NYI 3 – 2 NJ · NYI 46% → 66% +20NYI 46% → 66%+20 pts
- P311:10Nico Hischier Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Jack Hughes (19), Luke Hughes (11)NYI 4 – 4 NJ · NJ 18% → 52% +34NJ 18% → 52%+34 pts
- P319:37Curtis Lazar Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Kevin Bahl (3), Michael McLeod (4)NYI 4 – 5 NJ · NJ 50% → >99% +50NJ 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Devils 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 58%
- Fair odds
- NJ -125
- NYI +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.0 – 3.3 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | 0 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · NJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +57 Elo | NJ 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.7 | Goals scored | 3.66th of 31 |
| 17th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.728th of 31 |
| 25th of 31−0.6 | Margin | −0.119th of 31 |
| 29th of 3145.2% | Shot share | 52.5%8th of 31 |
| 5th of 3192.0% | Save percentage | 88.5%28th of 31 |
| 26th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 31 |
| 18th of 314–5 | Road vs home | 4–521st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYI 0–1 NJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.