Washington Capitals at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Nic DowdGoals2
- Beck MalenstynAssists2
- Nic DowdPoints2
Blackhawks- Philipp KurashevGoals1
- Connor BedardAssists2
- Philipp KurashevPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:18Connor Murphy Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (12), Philipp Kurashev (10)4–2
- P315:58Nic Dowd Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel (4), Beck Malenstyn (4)4–1
- P215:23Nic Dowd Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Beck Malenstyn (3), Nick Jensen (4)3–1
- P213:50Dylan Strome Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Joel Edmundson (1), Alex Ovechkin (11)2–1
- P28:11Anthony Mantha Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Connor McMichael (7)1–1
- P26:49Philipp Kurashev Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Seth Jones (11), Connor Bedard (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:49Philipp Kurashev Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Seth Jones (11), Connor Bedard (11)WSH 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 53% → 72% +18CHI 53% → 72%+18 pts
- P28:11Anthony Mantha Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Connor McMichael (7)WSH 1 – 1 CHI · WSH 28% → 47% +19WSH 28% → 47%+19 pts
- P213:50Dylan Strome Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Joel Edmundson (1), Alex Ovechkin (11)WSH 2 – 1 CHI · WSH 47% → 68% +21WSH 47% → 68%+21 pts
- P215:23Nic Dowd Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Beck Malenstyn (3), Nick Jensen (4)WSH 3 – 1 CHI · WSH 69% → 86% +17WSH 69% → 86%+17 pts
- P315:58Nic Dowd Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel (4), Beck Malenstyn (4)WSH 4 – 1 CHI · WSH >99% → >99% +0WSH >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blackhawks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 52%
- Fair odds
- CHI -119
- WSH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.0 – 3.2 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | CHI and WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −5 | WSH: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +12 Elo | CHI 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 54.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 312.6 | Goals scored | 2.530th of 31 |
| 9th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.318th of 31 |
| 19th of 31−0.2 | Margin | −0.829th of 31 |
| 26th of 3147.3% | Shot share | 45.1%28th of 31 |
| 7th of 3191.4% | Save percentage | 90.6%13th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 31 |
| 12th of 315–4 | Road vs home | 5–723rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.