Chicago Blackhawks at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Taylor RaddyshGoals1
- Connor BedardAssists1
- Taylor RaddyshPoints1
Wild- Marco RossiGoals2
- Mats ZuccarelloAssists2
- Mats ZuccarelloPoints3
Scoring summary
- P312:55Taylor Raddysh Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Tyler Johnson (3), Connor Bedard (9)1–4
- P211:36Matt Boldy Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Mats Zuccarello (20), Jared Spurgeon (3)0–4
- P117:07Mats Zuccarello Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (14), Alex Goligoski (2)0–3
- P112:08Marco Rossi Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Frederick Gaudreau (2), Brock Faber (9)0–2
- P12:11Marco Rossi Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Brock Faber (8), Mats Zuccarello (19)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:11Marco Rossi Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Brock Faber (8), Mats Zuccarello (19)CHI 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 59% → 73% +14MIN 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P112:08Marco Rossi Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Frederick Gaudreau (2), Brock Faber (9)CHI 0 – 2 MIN · MIN 73% → 85% +12MIN 73% → 85%+12 pts
- P117:07Mats Zuccarello Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (14), Alex Goligoski (2)CHI 0 – 3 MIN · MIN 86% → 93% +8MIN 86% → 93%+8 pts
- P211:36Matt Boldy Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Mats Zuccarello (20), Jared Spurgeon (3)CHI 0 – 4 MIN · MIN 96% → 99% +3MIN 96% → 99%+3 pts
- P312:55Taylor Raddysh Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Tyler Johnson (3), Connor Bedard (9)CHI 1 – 4 MIN · CHI <1% → <1% +0CHI <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wild 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 60%
- Fair odds
- MIN -147
- CHI +147 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.9 – 3.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −9 | −11 | CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +72 Elo | MIN 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 59.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 312.6 | Goals scored | 3.115th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.829th of 31 |
| 30th of 31−0.9 | Margin | −0.626th of 31 |
| 29th of 3145.5% | Shot share | 50.7%14th of 31 |
| 20th of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 88.5%28th of 31 |
| 30th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 31 |
| 24th of 314–8 | Road vs home | 4–520th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.