Minnesota Wild at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals1
- Kirill KaprizovAssists1
- Kirill KaprizovPoints2
Predators- Juuso ParssinenGoals1
- Luke EvangelistaAssists1
- Juuso ParssinenPoints1
Scoring summary
- P39:47Connor Dewar Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Vinni Lettieri (1), Zach Bogosian (1)6–1
- P32:37Juuso Parssinen Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Ryan McDonagh (7), Luke Evangelista (10)5–1
- P211:12Connor Dewar Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (13)5–0
- P21:43Pat Maroon Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Alex Goligoski (1), Frederick Gaudreau (1)4–0
- P114:32Kirill Kaprizov Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (18), Jared Spurgeon (2)3–0
- P114:01Jake Middleton Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Marcus Foligno (7), Connor Dewar (2)2–0
- P16:08Connor Dewar Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Duhaime (1), Marco Rossi (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:08Connor Dewar Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Duhaime (1), Marco Rossi (6)MIN 1 – 0 NSH · MIN 44% → 60% +15MIN 44% → 60%+15 pts
- P114:01Jake Middleton Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Marcus Foligno (7), Connor Dewar (2)MIN 2 – 0 NSH · MIN 61% → 76% +15MIN 61% → 76%+15 pts
- P114:32Kirill Kaprizov Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (18), Jared Spurgeon (2)MIN 3 – 0 NSH · MIN 76% → 87% +11MIN 76% → 87%+11 pts
- P21:43Pat Maroon Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Alex Goligoski (1), Frederick Gaudreau (1)MIN 4 – 0 NSH · MIN 89% → 96% +6MIN 89% → 96%+6 pts
- P211:12Connor Dewar Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (13)MIN 5 – 0 NSH · MIN 98% → >99% +2MIN 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Predators 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 60%
- Fair odds
- NSH -127
- MIN +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.9 – 3.3 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +4 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +68 Elo | NSH 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.315th of 31 |
| 30th of 313.9 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 31 |
| 30th of 31−0.9 | Margin | +0.311th of 31 |
| 12th of 3150.6% | Shot share | 50.0%16th of 31 |
| 29th of 3188.2% | Save percentage | 90.9%13th of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 29th of 312–7 | Road vs home | 8–36th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.