Winnipeg Jets at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Josh MorrisseyGoals1
- Mark ScheifeleAssists1
- Josh MorrisseyPoints1
Predators- Roman JosiGoals1
- Roman JosiAssists2
- Roman JosiPoints3
Scoring summary
- P311:10Cole Perfetti Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (16), Kyle Connor (9)2–3
- P310:28Josh Morrissey Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–3
- P26:22Gustav Nyquist Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Filip Forsberg (14), Roman Josi (11)0–3
- P21:26Roman Josi Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (5), Ryan McDonagh (6)0–2
- P119:40Yakov Trenin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (10)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:40Yakov Trenin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (10)WPG 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 54% → 71% +17NSH 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P21:26Roman Josi Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (5), Ryan McDonagh (6)WPG 0 – 2 NSH · NSH 71% → 84% +13NSH 71% → 84%+13 pts
- P26:22Gustav Nyquist Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Filip Forsberg (14), Roman Josi (11)WPG 0 – 3 NSH · NSH 86% → 94% +8NSH 86% → 94%+8 pts
- P310:28Josh Morrissey Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: noneWPG 1 – 3 NSH · WPG <1% → 3% +3WPG <1% → 3%+3 pts
- P311:10Cole Perfetti Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (16), Kyle Connor (9)WPG 2 – 3 NSH · WPG 3% → 16% +13WPG 3% → 16%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Predators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 55%
- Fair odds
- NSH -122
- WPG +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.0 – 3.3 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | 0 | WPG: Laurent Brossoit: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +31 Elo | NSH 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.315th of 31 |
| 12th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 31 |
| 9th of 31+0.5 | Margin | +0.213th of 31 |
| 7th of 3152.8% | Shot share | 50.6%13th of 31 |
| 17th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 90.6%12th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 31 |
| 7th of 315–3 | Road vs home | 6–39th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WPG 1–0 NSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.