Calgary Flames at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Yegor SharangovichGoals1
- Andrew MangiapaneAssists1
- Yegor SharangovichPoints1
Predators- Ryan O'ReillyGoals1
- Ryan McDonaghAssists2
- Ryan McDonaghPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:15Yegor Sharangovich Goal (4) Backhand, assists: none2–4
- P317:22Juuso Parssinen Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Philip Tomasino (4), Ryan McDonagh (4)1–4
- P311:56Alexandre Carrier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–3
- P111:23Ryan O'Reilly Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McDonagh (3), Gustav Nyquist (11)1–2
- P14:46Noah Hanifin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (6), Chris Tanev (4)1–1
- P12:33Colton Sissons Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Roman Josi (9), Cole Smith (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:33Colton Sissons Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Roman Josi (9), Cole Smith (3)CGY 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 55% → 69% +14NSH 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P14:46Noah Hanifin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (6), Chris Tanev (4)CGY 1 – 1 NSH · CGY 31% → 45% +14CGY 31% → 45%+14 pts
- P111:23Ryan O'Reilly Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McDonagh (3), Gustav Nyquist (11)CGY 1 – 2 NSH · NSH 55% → 70% +15NSH 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P311:56Alexandre Carrier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCGY 1 – 3 NSH · NSH 85% → 98% +13NSH 85% → 98%+13 pts
- P317:22Juuso Parssinen Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Philip Tomasino (4), Ryan McDonagh (4)CGY 1 – 4 NSH · NSH >99% → >99% +0NSH >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Predators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 55%
- Fair odds
- NSH -123
- CGY +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.0 – 3.3 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −3 | CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +37 Elo | NSH 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 312.9 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.113th of 31 |
| 23rd of 31−0.6 | Margin | −0.219th of 31 |
| 8th of 3152.9% | Shot share | 49.9%16th of 31 |
| 25th of 3189.3% | Save percentage | 90.4%13th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Road vs home | 5–310th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CGY 1–0 NSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.