Winnipeg Jets at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Adam LowryGoals1
- Mason AppletonAssists2
- Mason AppletonPoints2
PanthersScoring summary
- P316:11Adam Lowry Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Appleton (9), Dylan Samberg (5)3–0
- P311:15Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (10), Vladislav Namestnikov (9)2–0
- P117:43Nino Niederreiter Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Samberg (4), Mason Appleton (8)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:43Nino Niederreiter Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Samberg (4), Mason Appleton (8)WPG 1 – 0 FLA · WPG 46% → 63% +17WPG 46% → 63%+17 pts
- P311:15Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (10), Vladislav Namestnikov (9)WPG 2 – 0 FLA · WPG 82% → 97% +15WPG 82% → 97%+15 pts
- P316:11Adam Lowry Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Appleton (9), Dylan Samberg (5)WPG 3 – 0 FLA · WPG >99% → >99% +0WPG >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 55%
- Fair odds
- FLA -122
- WPG +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.0 – 3.3 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +5 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +35 Elo | FLA 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.119th of 31 |
| 17th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 2.77th of 31 |
| 12th of 31+0.3 | Margin | +0.311th of 31 |
| 7th of 3153.1% | Shot share | 54.5%3rd of 31 |
| 19th of 3189.6% | Save percentage | 90.7%11th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 9th of 314–3 | Road vs home | 7–24th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WPG 1–0 FLA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.