Boston Bruins at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Charlie CoyleGoals1
- Patrick BrownAssists1
- Charlie CoylePoints1
Panthers- Anton LundellGoals1
- Nick CousinsAssists1
- Anton LundellPoints1
Scoring summary
- P214:19Jake DeBrusk Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Poitras (5)3–1
- P211:14John Beecher Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jakub Lauko (2), Patrick Brown (1)2–1
- P210:33Anton Lundell Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Nick Cousins (2), Niko Mikkola (5)1–1
- P118:35Charlie Coyle Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Danton Heinen (3), Hampus Lindholm (4)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:35Charlie Coyle Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Danton Heinen (3), Hampus Lindholm (4)BOS 1 – 0 FLA · BOS 46% → 63% +17BOS 46% → 63%+17 pts
- P210:33Anton Lundell Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Nick Cousins (2), Niko Mikkola (5)BOS 1 – 1 FLA · FLA 33% → 53% +20FLA 33% → 53%+20 pts
- P211:14John Beecher Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jakub Lauko (2), Patrick Brown (1)BOS 2 – 1 FLA · BOS 47% → 67% +20BOS 47% → 67%+20 pts
- P214:19Jake DeBrusk Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Poitras (5)BOS 3 – 1 FLA · BOS 68% → 85% +17BOS 68% → 85%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 54%
- Fair odds
- FLA -121
- BOS +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.0 – 3.3 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +6 | BOS: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +25 Elo | FLA 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.218th of 31 |
| 1st of 312.2 | Goals allowed | 2.79th of 31 |
| 2nd of 31+1.4 | Margin | +0.411th of 31 |
| 14th of 3150.5% | Shot share | 54.6%3rd of 31 |
| 1st of 3193.1% | Save percentage | 90.8%13th of 31 |
| 4th of 317–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 5th of 316–3 | Road vs home | 7–11st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 1–0 FLA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.