Nashville Predators at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Filip ForsbergGoals2
- Kiefer SherwoodAssists2
- Filip ForsbergPoints3
Blues- Robert ThomasGoals1
- Robert ThomasAssists1
- Pavel BuchnevichPoints2
Scoring summary
- P312:42Kiefer Sherwood Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none8–3
- P35:23Jake Neighbours Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Torey Krug (6), Jordan Kyrou (8)7–3
- P217:29Filip Forsberg Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Smith (4)7–2
- P210:17Robert Thomas Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (6), Brandon Saad (5)6–2
- P26:00Luke Evangelista Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Philip Tomasino (5), Alexandre Carrier (7)6–1
- P24:46Ryan O'Reilly Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (13), Tyson Barrie (8)5–1
- P22:45Spencer Stastney Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (9), Kiefer Sherwood (4)4–1
- P116:32Pavel Buchnevich Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Scandella (2), Robert Thomas (12)3–1
- P113:53Luke Evangelista Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (3), Alexandre Carrier (6)3–0
- P17:25Yakov Trenin Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Colton Sissons (4), Ryan McDonagh (5)2–0
- P16:57Filip Forsberg Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (12), Jeremy Lauzon (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:57Filip Forsberg Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (12), Jeremy Lauzon (2)NSH 1 – 0 STL · NSH 45% → 60% +15NSH 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P17:25Yakov Trenin Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Colton Sissons (4), Ryan McDonagh (5)NSH 2 – 0 STL · NSH 60% → 74% +14NSH 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P113:53Luke Evangelista Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (3), Alexandre Carrier (6)NSH 3 – 0 STL · NSH 76% → 87% +11NSH 76% → 87%+11 pts
- P116:32Pavel Buchnevich Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Scandella (2), Robert Thomas (12)NSH 3 – 1 STL · STL 12% → 23% +11STL 12% → 23%+11 pts
- P22:45Spencer Stastney Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (9), Kiefer Sherwood (4)NSH 4 – 1 STL · NSH 79% → 90% +11NSH 79% → 90%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blues 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 57%
- Fair odds
- STL -124
- NSH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.0 – 3.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +7 | NSH: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +48 Elo | STL 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 2.925th of 31 |
| 13th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 2.77th of 31 |
| 18th of 31−0.1 | Margin | +0.215th of 31 |
| 13th of 3150.9% | Shot share | 47.7%26th of 31 |
| 13th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 92.4%4th of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 27th of 312–6 | Road vs home | 5–12nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.