Minnesota Wild at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Joel Eriksson EkGoals1
- Mats ZuccarelloAssists1
- Joel Eriksson EkPoints1
Red Wings- David PerronGoals2
- Shayne GostisbehereAssists3
- Shayne GostisbeherePoints4
Scoring summary
- P319:37Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (13), Michael Rasmussen (4)1–4
- P31:29David Perron Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (13), Dylan Larkin (13)1–3
- P216:53Dylan Larkin Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (12)1–2
- P119:48Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (12), Mats Zuccarello (16)1–1
- P14:06David Perron Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (8), Shayne Gostisbehere (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:06David Perron Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (8), Shayne Gostisbehere (11)MIN 0 – 1 DET · DET 56% → 71% +14DET 56% → 71%+14 pts
- P119:48Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (12), Mats Zuccarello (16)MIN 1 – 1 DET · MIN 28% → 45% +17MIN 28% → 45%+17 pts
- P216:53Dylan Larkin Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (12)MIN 1 – 2 DET · DET 54% → 76% +21DET 54% → 76%+21 pts
- P31:29David Perron Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (13), Dylan Larkin (13)MIN 1 – 3 DET · DET 77% → 92% +15DET 77% → 92%+15 pts
- P319:37Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (13), Michael Rasmussen (4)MIN 1 – 4 DET · DET 100% → 100% +0DET 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Wings 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 63%
- Fair odds
- DET -131
- MIN +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.0 – 3.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +18 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.45 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +92 Elo | DET 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 56.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.76th of 31 |
| 30th of 314.1 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 31 |
| 30th of 31−0.9 | Margin | +0.67th of 31 |
| 19th of 3149.4% | Shot share | 51.2%12th of 31 |
| 29th of 3187.9% | Save percentage | 90.1%18th of 31 |
| 30th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 31 |
| 29th of 312–6 | Road vs home | 6–410th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.