Toronto Maple Leafs at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Morgan RiellyGoals1
- Morgan RiellyAssists2
- Morgan RiellyPoints3
Wild- Mats ZuccarelloGoals1
- Mats ZuccarelloAssists1
- Mats ZuccarelloPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:09William Nylander Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (12)4–3
- P38:42Mats Zuccarello Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Brock Faber (7), Jonas Brodin (7)3–3
- P36:10Jake Middleton Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Marcus Foligno (5), Joel Eriksson Ek (7)3–2
- P34:22Morgan Rielly Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (7), Mitchell Marner (15)3–1
- P118:23Matthew Knies Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (14), Mark Giordano (3)2–1
- P112:43Auston Matthews Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (15), Morgan Rielly (11)1–1
- P12:37Jon Merrill Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (4), Mats Zuccarello (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:43Auston Matthews Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (15), Morgan Rielly (11)TOR 1 – 1 MIN · TOR 38% → 54% +16TOR 38% → 54%+16 pts
- P118:23Matthew Knies Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (14), Mark Giordano (3)TOR 2 – 1 MIN · TOR 54% → 71% +16TOR 54% → 71%+16 pts
- P34:22Morgan Rielly Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (7), Mitchell Marner (15)TOR 3 – 1 MIN · TOR 78% → 93% +15TOR 78% → 93%+15 pts
- P38:42Mats Zuccarello Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Brock Faber (7), Jonas Brodin (7)TOR 3 – 3 MIN · MIN 19% → 48% +29MIN 19% → 48%+29 pts
- OT3:09William Nylander Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (12)TOR 4 – 3 MIN · TOR 51% → 98% +47TOR 51% → 98%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Maple Leafs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 58%
- Fair odds
- TOR -122
- MIN +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.3 – 3.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Rest | — | −30 | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −10 | −13 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.34 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +56 Elo | TOR 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.217th of 31 |
| 21st of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 4.130th of 31 |
| 14th of 31+0.1 | Margin | −0.930th of 31 |
| 14th of 3150.9% | Shot share | 49.0%19th of 31 |
| 21st of 3189.5% | Save percentage | 88.1%30th of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–0 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.