Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Valeri NichushkinGoals1
- Andrew CoglianoAssists1
- Valeri NichushkinPoints1
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals1
- Kirill KaprizovAssists1
- Kirill KaprizovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P34:56Kurtis MacDermid Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Andrew Cogliano (4), Fredrik Olofsson (1)3–2
- P214:21Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Mats Zuccarello (15), Kirill Kaprizov (11)2–2
- P29:13Kirill Kaprizov Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Marco Rossi (5)2–1
- P28:39Valeri Nichushkin Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (18), Devon Toews (9)2–0
- P117:43Ross Colton Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (3), Riley Tufte (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:43Ross Colton Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (3), Riley Tufte (1)COL 1 – 0 MIN · COL 47% → 64% +17COL 47% → 64%+17 pts
- P28:39Valeri Nichushkin Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (18), Devon Toews (9)COL 2 – 0 MIN · COL 67% → 83% +16COL 67% → 83%+16 pts
- P29:13Kirill Kaprizov Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Marco Rossi (5)COL 2 – 1 MIN · MIN 17% → 33% +16MIN 17% → 33%+16 pts
- P214:21Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Mats Zuccarello (15), Kirill Kaprizov (11)COL 2 – 2 MIN · MIN 31% → 52% +21MIN 31% → 52%+21 pts
- P34:56Kurtis MacDermid Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Andrew Cogliano (4), Fredrik Olofsson (1)COL 3 – 2 MIN · COL 48% → 75% +27COL 48% → 75%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wild 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 48%
- Fair odds
- MIN -116
- COL +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.1 – 3.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −8 | COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +13 Elo | COL 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 313.9 | Goals scored | 3.216th of 31 |
| 13th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 4.130th of 31 |
| 6th of 31+0.8 | Margin | −0.930th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3154.6% | Shot share | 49.6%17th of 31 |
| 25th of 3189.2% | Save percentage | 87.9%29th of 31 |
| 5th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Road vs home | 3–419th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.