Detroit Red Wings at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals1
- Shayne GostisbehereAssists2
- J.T. CompherPoints2
Bruins- Danton HeinenGoals1
- Mason LohreiAssists1
- Danton HeinenPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:15David Perron Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–2
- P35:08Dylan Larkin Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (12), Shayne Gostisbehere (10)4–2
- P34:12Danton Heinen Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (10), Mason Lohrei (3)3–2
- P213:24Robby Fabbri Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Daniel Sprong (8), Alex DeBrincat (8)3–1
- P23:00Jake DeBrusk Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (18), Pavel Zacha (8)2–1
- P115:01Alex DeBrincat Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–0
- P15:13J.T. Compher Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (9), Lucas Raymond (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:13J.T. Compher Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (9), Lucas Raymond (7)DET 1 – 0 BOS · DET 44% → 59% +15DET 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P23:00Jake DeBrusk Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (18), Pavel Zacha (8)DET 2 – 1 BOS · BOS 21% → 37% +16BOS 21% → 37%+16 pts
- P213:24Robby Fabbri Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Daniel Sprong (8), Alex DeBrincat (8)DET 3 – 1 BOS · DET 67% → 84% +17DET 67% → 84%+17 pts
- P34:12Danton Heinen Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (10), Mason Lohrei (3)DET 3 – 2 BOS · BOS 9% → 27% +17BOS 9% → 27%+17 pts
- P35:08Dylan Larkin Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (12), Shayne Gostisbehere (10)DET 4 – 2 BOS · DET 74% → 92% +17DET 74% → 92%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 62%
- Fair odds
- BOS -130
- DET +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.0 – 3.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −18 | +3 | DET: Ville Husso: team allows 0.46 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +88 Elo | BOS 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.57th of 31 |
| 14th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 2.11st of 31 |
| 10th of 31+0.4 | Margin | +1.42nd of 31 |
| 11th of 3151.2% | Shot share | 50.4%15th of 31 |
| 16th of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 93.3%1st of 31 |
| 21st of 314–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 31 |
| 13th of 313–3 | Road vs home | 7–11st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 1–1 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.