Pittsburgh Penguins at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Bryan RustGoals1
- John LudvigAssists1
- Evgeni MalkinPoints1
Predators- Michael McCarronGoals2
- Filip ForsbergAssists1
- Michael McCarronPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:14Filip Forsberg Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Roman Josi (12), Ryan O'Reilly (9)2–3
- P32:26Bryan Rust Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: John Ludvig (1), Jake Guentzel (17)2–2
- P25:49Evgeni Malkin Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (7)1–2
- P118:38Michael McCarron Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Philip Tomasino (6), Filip Forsberg (15)0–2
- P110:20Michael McCarron Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Tyson Barrie (9), Gustav Nyquist (13)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:20Michael McCarron Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Tyson Barrie (9), Gustav Nyquist (13)PIT 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 54% → 70% +15NSH 54% → 70%+15 pts
- P118:38Michael McCarron Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Philip Tomasino (6), Filip Forsberg (15)PIT 0 – 2 NSH · NSH 71% → 84% +13NSH 71% → 84%+13 pts
- P25:49Evgeni Malkin Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (7)PIT 1 – 2 NSH · PIT 14% → 28% +14PIT 14% → 28%+14 pts
- P32:26Bryan Rust Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: John Ludvig (1), Jake Guentzel (17)PIT 2 – 2 NSH · PIT 23% → 47% +24PIT 23% → 47%+24 pts
- OT0:14Filip Forsberg Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Roman Josi (12), Ryan O'Reilly (9)PIT 2 – 3 NSH · NSH 51% → 91% +39NSH 51% → 91%+39 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Predators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 54%
- Fair odds
- NSH -122
- PIT +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 3.3 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +2 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +31 Elo | NSH 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.316th of 31 |
| 6th of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 31 |
| 8th of 31+0.5 | Margin | +0.312th of 31 |
| 9th of 3152.1% | Shot share | 50.3%14th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3192.2% | Save percentage | 90.8%11th of 31 |
| 5th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 31 |
| 8th of 315–4 | Road vs home | 7–38th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.