Toronto Maple Leafs at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Tyler BertuzziGoals1
- John TavaresAssists1
- Tyler BertuzziPoints1
Penguins- Noel AcciariGoals1
- Kris LetangAssists1
- Erik KarlssonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P219:32Erik Karlsson Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Kris Letang (10), Jeff Carter (1)2–3
- P210:01Noel Acciari Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–2
- P17:48Matthew Knies Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Calle Jarnkrok (6)2–1
- P14:27Jake Guentzel Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Drew O'Connor (4), Sidney Crosby (11)1–1
- P13:59Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (13), Morgan Rielly (13)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:59Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (13), Morgan Rielly (13)TOR 1 – 0 PIT · TOR 45% → 60% +15TOR 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P14:27Jake Guentzel Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Drew O'Connor (4), Sidney Crosby (11)TOR 1 – 1 PIT · PIT 40% → 55% +15PIT 40% → 55%+15 pts
- P17:48Matthew Knies Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Calle Jarnkrok (6)TOR 2 – 1 PIT · TOR 45% → 60% +15TOR 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P210:01Noel Acciari Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTOR 2 – 2 PIT · PIT 34% → 54% +20PIT 34% → 54%+20 pts
- P219:32Erik Karlsson Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Kris Letang (10), Jeff Carter (1)TOR 2 – 3 PIT · PIT 53% → 76% +23PIT 53% → 76%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Penguins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 57%
- Fair odds
- PIT -124
- TOR +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.0 – 3.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | PIT and TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +6 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +48 Elo | PIT 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.216th of 31 |
| 22nd of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 2.66th of 31 |
| 16th of 31+0.1 | Margin | +0.58th of 31 |
| 15th of 3150.4% | Shot share | 52.1%9th of 31 |
| 20th of 3189.5% | Save percentage | 92.2%4th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 31 |
| 20th of 313–4 | Road vs home | 4–620th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.