Toronto Maple Leafs at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Calle JarnkrokGoals1
- Max DomiAssists2
- Max DomiPoints2
Blackhawks- Jason DickinsonGoals3
- Joey AndersonAssists1
- Jason DickinsonPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT4:30Kevin Korchinski Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Connor Bedard (7), Philipp Kurashev (8)3–4
- P30:15Jason Dickinson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–3
- P212:27Jason Dickinson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–2
- P23:31Ryan Reaves Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake McCabe (1), David Kampf (3)3–1
- P21:17Calle Jarnkrok Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: TJ Brodie (3), Max Domi (11)2–1
- P18:03Jason Dickinson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Joey Anderson (1)1–1
- P17:14Nicholas Robertson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Domi (10), Mark Giordano (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:03Jason Dickinson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Joey Anderson (1)TOR 1 – 1 CHI · CHI 38% → 54% +15CHI 38% → 54%+15 pts
- P21:17Calle Jarnkrok Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: TJ Brodie (3), Max Domi (11)TOR 2 – 1 CHI · TOR 47% → 64% +18TOR 47% → 64%+18 pts
- P212:27Jason Dickinson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTOR 3 – 2 CHI · CHI 16% → 32% +16CHI 16% → 32%+16 pts
- P30:15Jason Dickinson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTOR 3 – 3 CHI · CHI 28% → 52% +24CHI 28% → 52%+24 pts
- OT4:30Kevin Korchinski Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Connor Bedard (7), Philipp Kurashev (8)TOR 3 – 4 CHI · CHI 50% → >99% +50CHI 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blackhawks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 50%
- Fair odds
- CHI -118
- TOR +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.0 – 3.3 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −10 | TOR: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +2 Elo | CHI 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 54.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.421st of 31 |
| 16th of 31+0.2 | Margin | −0.828th of 31 |
| 15th of 3150.3% | Shot share | 44.7%30th of 31 |
| 19th of 3189.6% | Save percentage | 90.3%15th of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 31 |
| 14th of 313–3 | Road vs home | 1–531st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 0–1 CHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.