St. Louis Blues at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Colton ParaykoGoals1
- Sammy BlaisAssists1
- Colton ParaykoPoints1
Wild- Frederick GaudreauGoals1
- Jonas BrodinAssists1
- Frederick GaudreauPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:08Matt Boldy Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonas Brodin (8)1–3
- P118:10Frederick Gaudreau Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Pat Maroon (8), Marcus Foligno (6)1–2
- P110:30Colton Parayko Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Sammy Blais (5), Alexey Toropchenko (3)1–1
- P12:41Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (17), Jared Spurgeon (1)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:41Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (17), Jared Spurgeon (1)STL 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 54% → 68% +14MIN 54% → 68%+14 pts
- P110:30Colton Parayko Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Sammy Blais (5), Alexey Toropchenko (3)STL 1 – 1 MIN · STL 31% → 46% +15STL 31% → 46%+15 pts
- P118:10Frederick Gaudreau Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Pat Maroon (8), Marcus Foligno (6)STL 1 – 2 MIN · MIN 53% → 70% +17MIN 53% → 70%+17 pts
- P317:08Matt Boldy Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonas Brodin (8)STL 1 – 3 MIN · MIN 95% → >99% +4MIN 95% → >99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wild 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 50%
- Fair odds
- MIN -118
- STL +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.0 – 3.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −5 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN 0 Elo | MIN 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 31 |
| 11th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 4.130th of 31 |
| 18th of 310.0 | Margin | −1.130th of 31 |
| 25th of 3148.0% | Shot share | 50.1%15th of 31 |
| 8th of 3191.5% | Save percentage | 87.8%30th of 31 |
| 5th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Road vs home | 3–524th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.