St. Louis Blues at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Jake NeighboursGoals2
- Pavel BuchnevichAssists2
- Pavel BuchnevichPoints3
Blackhawks- Ryan DonatoGoals1
- Wyatt KaiserAssists2
- Ryan DonatoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:58Boris Katchouk Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Ryan Donato (5), Wyatt Kaiser (4)4–2
- P313:52Jake Neighbours Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (8), Robert Thomas (14)4–1
- P117:02Pavel Buchnevich Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (13), Torey Krug (8)3–1
- P114:45Ryan Donato Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Isaak Phillips (2), Wyatt Kaiser (3)2–1
- P15:27Kevin Hayes Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (9), Brandon Saad (6)2–0
- P13:21Jake Neighbours Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (7), Torey Krug (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:21Jake Neighbours Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (7), Torey Krug (7)STL 1 – 0 CHI · STL 46% → 61% +15STL 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P15:27Kevin Hayes Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (9), Brandon Saad (6)STL 2 – 0 CHI · STL 61% → 74% +14STL 61% → 74%+14 pts
- P114:45Ryan Donato Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Isaak Phillips (2), Wyatt Kaiser (3)STL 2 – 1 CHI · CHI 23% → 37% +14CHI 23% → 37%+14 pts
- P117:02Pavel Buchnevich Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (13), Torey Krug (8)STL 3 – 1 CHI · STL 63% → 78% +15STL 63% → 78%+15 pts
- P313:52Jake Neighbours Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (8), Robert Thomas (14)STL 4 – 1 CHI · STL 99% → >99% +1STL 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blackhawks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 52%
- Fair odds
- CHI -120
- STL +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.0 – 3.3 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −7 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +15 Elo | CHI 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 312.9 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 31 |
| 11th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.420th of 31 |
| 19th of 31−0.1 | Margin | −0.726th of 31 |
| 24th of 3148.1% | Shot share | 44.9%30th of 31 |
| 8th of 3191.3% | Save percentage | 90.4%14th of 31 |
| 10th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 31 |
| 26th of 313–6 | Road vs home | 2–529th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.