Seattle Kraken at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Matty BeniersGoals1
- Matty BeniersAssists1
- Matty BeniersPoints2
Blackhawks- Jason DickinsonGoals1
- Joey AndersonAssists2
- Joey AndersonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P36:51Tye Kartye Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (8)3–4
- P210:43MacKenzie Entwistle Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Joey Anderson (3)2–4
- P24:22Tyler Johnson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Raddysh (2), Lukas Reichel (4)2–3
- P119:23Alex Wennberg Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Larsson (4), Philipp Grubauer (1)2–2
- P114:43Matty Beniers Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (5)1–2
- P110:23Jason Dickinson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Isaak Phillips (3), Joey Anderson (2)0–2
- P18:54Boris Katchouk Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (6), Seth Jones (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:54Boris Katchouk Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (6), Seth Jones (8)SEA 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 55% → 70% +15CHI 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P119:23Alex Wennberg Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Larsson (4), Philipp Grubauer (1)SEA 2 – 2 CHI · SEA 29% → 46% +17SEA 29% → 46%+17 pts
- P24:22Tyler Johnson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Raddysh (2), Lukas Reichel (4)SEA 2 – 3 CHI · CHI 54% → 72% +18CHI 54% → 72%+18 pts
- P210:43MacKenzie Entwistle Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Joey Anderson (3)SEA 2 – 4 CHI · CHI 73% → 87% +14CHI 73% → 87%+14 pts
- P36:51Tye Kartye Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (8)SEA 3 – 4 CHI · SEA 5% → 20% +15SEA 5% → 20%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blackhawks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 55%
- Fair odds
- CHI -122
- SEA +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.0 – 3.3 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −8 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +36 Elo | CHI 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 2.729th of 31 |
| 24th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.421st of 31 |
| 26th of 31−0.7 | Margin | −0.828th of 31 |
| 19th of 3149.4% | Shot share | 45.5%28th of 31 |
| 26th of 3189.0% | Save percentage | 90.2%18th of 31 |
| 21st of 314–6 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Road vs home | 2–631st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.