Chicago Blackhawks at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Lukas ReichelGoals1
- Kevin KorchinskiAssists1
- Lukas ReichelPoints1
Red Wings- J.T. CompherGoals2
- Jake WalmanAssists2
- J.T. CompherPoints2
Scoring summary
- P310:54Robby Fabbri Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Daniel Sprong (9), Moritz Seider (11)1–5
- P25:56J.T. Compher Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: David Perron (5), Lucas Raymond (10)1–4
- P25:09Ben Chiarot Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (9), Lucas Raymond (9)1–3
- P18:42Robby Fabbri Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Jake Walman (6)1–2
- P13:20Lukas Reichel Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (8), Kevin Korchinski (5)1–1
- P12:29J.T. Compher Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (5), Jake Walman (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:29J.T. Compher Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (5), Jake Walman (5)CHI 0 – 1 DET · DET 52% → 67% +14DET 52% → 67%+14 pts
- P13:20Lukas Reichel Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (8), Kevin Korchinski (5)CHI 1 – 1 DET · CHI 33% → 48% +14CHI 33% → 48%+14 pts
- P18:42Robby Fabbri Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Jake Walman (6)CHI 1 – 2 DET · DET 52% → 67% +15DET 52% → 67%+15 pts
- P25:09Ben Chiarot Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (9), Lucas Raymond (9)CHI 1 – 3 DET · DET 70% → 84% +14DET 70% → 84%+14 pts
- P25:56J.T. Compher Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: David Perron (5), Lucas Raymond (10)CHI 1 – 4 DET · DET 85% → 93% +9DET 85% → 93%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Wings 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 59%
- Fair odds
- DET -110
- CHI +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 3.0 – 3.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +25 | CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.63 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +66 Elo | DET 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.7 | Goals scored | 3.65th of 31 |
| 21st of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 31 |
| 27th of 31−0.7 | Margin | +0.67th of 31 |
| 30th of 3145.1% | Shot share | 50.0%17th of 31 |
| 17th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 90.7%13th of 31 |
| 26th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Road vs home | 7–410th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.