Detroit Red Wings at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Robby FabbriGoals1
- Andrew CoppAssists2
- Robby FabbriPoints2
Rangers- K'Andre MillerGoals1
- Alexis LafreniereAssists2
- K'Andre MillerPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:45Jimmy Vesey Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (6), Vincent Trocheck (12)2–3
- P39:14K'Andre Miller Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (11), Jacob Trouba (8)2–2
- P29:06Robby Fabbri Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonatan Berggren (1), Andrew Copp (4)2–1
- P28:43Moritz Seider Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (3), Robby Fabbri (2)1–1
- P24:37Artemi Panarin Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (5), K'Andre Miller (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:37Artemi Panarin Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (5), K'Andre Miller (7)DET 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 54% → 72% +18NYR 54% → 72%+18 pts
- P28:43Moritz Seider Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (3), Robby Fabbri (2)DET 1 – 1 NYR · DET 27% → 46% +19DET 27% → 46%+19 pts
- P29:06Robby Fabbri Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonatan Berggren (1), Andrew Copp (4)DET 2 – 1 NYR · DET 46% → 66% +20DET 46% → 66%+20 pts
- P39:14K'Andre Miller Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (11), Jacob Trouba (8)DET 2 – 2 NYR · NYR 21% → 52% +31NYR 21% → 52%+31 pts
- P315:45Jimmy Vesey Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (6), Vincent Trocheck (12)DET 2 – 3 NYR · NYR 52% → 92% +41NYR 52% → 92%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 58%
- Fair odds
- NYR -125
- DET +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.0 – 3.3 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −14 | −5 | DET: Ville Husso: team allows 0.36 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +57 Elo | NYR 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 31 |
| 15th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.85th of 31 |
| 13th of 3150.5% | Shot share | 48.3%24th of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 92.0%4th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 6th of 314–3 | Road vs home | 5–27th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–1 NYR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.