Buffalo Sabres at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Alex TuchGoals2
- Victor OlofssonAssists2
- Alex TuchPoints2
Rangers- Mika ZibanejadGoals1
- Artemi PanarinAssists1
- Mika ZibanejadPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:53Kyle Okposo Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Henri Jokiharju (6), Victor Olofsson (7)5–1
- P318:29Casey Mittelstadt Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeff Skinner (8)4–1
- P315:31Alex Tuch Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (16), Owen Power (11)3–1
- P38:08Mika Zibanejad Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Erik Gustafsson (12), Artemi Panarin (19)2–1
- P219:33Alex Tuch Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (15), Rasmus Dahlin (14)2–0
- P111:41JJ Peterka Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Olofsson (6), Owen Power (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:41JJ Peterka Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Olofsson (6), Owen Power (10)BUF 1 – 0 NYR · BUF 45% → 61% +16BUF 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P219:33Alex Tuch Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (15), Rasmus Dahlin (14)BUF 2 – 0 NYR · BUF 70% → 88% +17BUF 70% → 88%+17 pts
- P38:08Mika Zibanejad Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Erik Gustafsson (12), Artemi Panarin (19)BUF 2 – 1 NYR · NYR 6% → 23% +17NYR 6% → 23%+17 pts
- P315:31Alex Tuch Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (16), Owen Power (11)BUF 3 – 1 NYR · BUF 90% → >99% +9BUF 90% → >99%+9 pts
- P318:29Casey Mittelstadt Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeff Skinner (8)BUF 4 – 1 NYR · BUF >99% → >99% +0BUF >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 60%
- Fair odds
- NYR -128
- BUF +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.0 – 3.3 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | 0 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +73 Elo | NYR 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 56.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.67th of 31 |
| 17th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 2.43rd of 31 |
| 22nd of 31−0.5 | Margin | +1.13rd of 31 |
| 25th of 3147.8% | Shot share | 49.0%20th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.3% | Save percentage | 92.2%4th of 31 |
| 22nd of 314–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 26th of 314–7 | Road vs home | 5–11st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BUF 0–1 NYR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.