Boston Bruins at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Charlie CoyleGoals2
- James van RiemsdykAssists2
- Charlie CoylePoints2
Rangers- Chris KreiderGoals2
- Artemi PanarinAssists2
- Chris KreiderPoints3
Scoring summary
- P34:38Artemi Panarin Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Braden Schneider (5), Zac Jones (3)4–7
- P32:29Charlie Coyle Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (10), Morgan Geekie (3)4–6
- P31:26Tyler Pitlick Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jimmy Vesey (3), Barclay Goodrow (2)3–6
- P219:36K'Andre Miller Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (10), Chris Kreider (7)3–5
- P216:37Jimmy Vesey Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (11), Artemi Panarin (18)3–4
- P20:26David Pastrnak Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (9)3–3
- P118:41Chris Kreider Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (7)2–3
- P114:14Morgan Geekie Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jakub Lauko (3), Derek Forbort (3)2–2
- P113:50Charlie Coyle Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Trent Frederic (3), James van Riemsdyk (9)1–2
- P110:56Chris Kreider Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Gustafsson (11), Artemi Panarin (17)0–2
- P15:58Nick Bonino Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:14Morgan Geekie Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jakub Lauko (3), Derek Forbort (3)BOS 2 – 2 NYR · BOS 30% → 45% +16BOS 30% → 45%+16 pts
- P118:41Chris Kreider Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (7)BOS 2 – 3 NYR · NYR 54% → 71% +16NYR 54% → 71%+16 pts
- P20:26David Pastrnak Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (9)BOS 3 – 3 NYR · BOS 29% → 46% +17BOS 29% → 46%+17 pts
- P216:37Jimmy Vesey Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (11), Artemi Panarin (18)BOS 3 – 4 NYR · NYR 53% → 75% +21NYR 53% → 75%+21 pts
- P219:36K'Andre Miller Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (10), Chris Kreider (7)BOS 3 – 5 NYR · NYR 76% → 91% +15NYR 76% → 91%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 56%
- Fair odds
- NYR -124
- BOS +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.0 – 3.3 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | NYR and BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +14 | BOS: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.35 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +45 Elo | NYR 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.413th of 31 |
| 1st of 312.3 | Goals allowed | 2.42nd of 31 |
| 3rd of 31+1.2 | Margin | +1.05th of 31 |
| 16th of 3150.3% | Shot share | 48.5%23rd of 31 |
| 1st of 3192.9% | Save percentage | 92.5%3rd of 31 |
| 5th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 5th of 317–3 | Road vs home | 4–11st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.