Chicago Blackhawks at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Connor BedardGoals1
- Philipp KurashevAssists1
- Connor BedardPoints1
Jets- Morgan BarronGoals1
- Dylan DeMeloAssists1
- Mark ScheifelePoints1
Scoring summary
- P310:06Cole Perfetti Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Samberg (6), Declan Chisholm (1)1–3
- P26:23Morgan Barron Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (6), Dylan DeMelo (8)1–2
- P110:43Mark Scheifele Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (2), Josh Morrissey (16)1–1
- P14:39Connor Bedard Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (9)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:39Connor Bedard Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (9)CHI 1 – 0 WPG · CHI 44% → 59% +15CHI 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P110:43Mark Scheifele Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (2), Josh Morrissey (16)CHI 1 – 1 WPG · WPG 40% → 56% +16WPG 40% → 56%+16 pts
- P26:23Morgan Barron Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (6), Dylan DeMelo (8)CHI 1 – 2 WPG · WPG 55% → 73% +18WPG 55% → 73%+18 pts
- P310:06Cole Perfetti Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Samberg (6), Declan Chisholm (1)CHI 1 – 3 WPG · WPG 83% → 97% +14WPG 83% → 97%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 61%
- Fair odds
- WPG -129
- CHI +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.9 – 3.3 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +13 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.32 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +80 Elo | WPG 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 56.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 312.6 | Goals scored | 3.118th of 31 |
| 22nd of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 31 |
| 29th of 31−0.9 | Margin | +0.111th of 31 |
| 28th of 3145.6% | Shot share | 52.5%9th of 31 |
| 20th of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 90.6%14th of 31 |
| 28th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 23rd of 314–7 | Road vs home | 5–618th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.