Edmonton Oilers at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Ryan McLeodGoals1
- Ryan McLeodAssists1
- Ryan McLeodPoints2
Jets- Cole PerfettiGoals1
- Mark ScheifeleAssists1
- Cole PerfettiPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:40Ryan McLeod Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (11), Cody Ceci (6)3–1
- P317:47Leon Draisaitl Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (21), Evan Bouchard (17)2–1
- P313:11Darnell Nurse Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (5), Mattias Janmark (1)1–1
- P118:27Cole Perfetti Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Mark Scheifele (17), Kyle Connor (10)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:27Cole Perfetti Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Mark Scheifele (17), Kyle Connor (10)EDM 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 55% → 71% +16WPG 55% → 71%+16 pts
- P313:11Darnell Nurse Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (5), Mattias Janmark (1)EDM 1 – 1 WPG · EDM 13% → 48% +35EDM 13% → 48%+35 pts
- P317:47Leon Draisaitl Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (21), Evan Bouchard (17)EDM 2 – 1 WPG · EDM 49% → 97% +48EDM 49% → 97%+48 pts
- P319:40Ryan McLeod Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (11), Cody Ceci (6)EDM 3 – 1 WPG · EDM >99% → 100% +0EDM >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 59%
- Fair odds
- WPG -127
- EDM +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.0 – 3.3 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +15 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.37 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +66 Elo | WPG 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.216th of 31 |
| 29th of 313.7 | Goals allowed | 2.914th of 31 |
| 22nd of 31−0.3 | Margin | +0.312th of 31 |
| 5th of 3153.7% | Shot share | 53.2%7th of 31 |
| 30th of 3187.6% | Save percentage | 90.3%15th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 28th of 313–8 | Road vs home | 5–513th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
EDM 0–1 WPG in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.