Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Michael AmadioGoals1
- Nicolas RoyAssists2
- Michael AmadioPoints2
Oilers- Connor McDavidGoals1
- Connor McDavidAssists2
- Connor McDavidPoints3
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal Wrist Shot0–2
- SO0:00Connor McDavid Goal Wrist Shot0–2
- P317:52Keegan Kolesar Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Zach Whitecloud (1), Nicolas Roy (5)4–4
- P313:30Ben Hutton Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Paul Cotter (4), Michael Amadio (9)3–4
- P217:23Evander Kane Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Evan Bouchard (16), Connor McDavid (20)2–4
- P27:54Connor McDavid Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Cody Ceci (5)2–3
- P25:51Michael Amadio Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Nicolas Roy (4)2–2
- P25:08Mattias Janmark Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Mattias Ekholm (6), Connor McDavid (19)1–2
- P21:11Mark Stone Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Kaedan Korczak (4), Jack Eichel (13)1–1
- P113:29Sam Gagner Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: James Hamblin (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:11Mark Stone Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Kaedan Korczak (4), Jack Eichel (13)VGK 1 – 1 EDM · VGK 26% → 43% +17VGK 26% → 43%+17 pts
- P25:08Mattias Janmark Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Mattias Ekholm (6), Connor McDavid (19)VGK 1 – 2 EDM · EDM 57% → 74% +17EDM 57% → 74%+17 pts
- P25:51Michael Amadio Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Nicolas Roy (4)VGK 2 – 2 EDM · VGK 26% → 43% +18VGK 26% → 43%+18 pts
- P27:54Connor McDavid Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Cody Ceci (5)VGK 2 – 3 EDM · EDM 56% → 75% +18EDM 56% → 75%+18 pts
- P317:52Keegan Kolesar Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Zach Whitecloud (1), Nicolas Roy (5)VGK 4 – 4 EDM · VGK 2% → 48% +46VGK 2% → 48%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 56%
- Fair odds
- EDM -142
- VGK +142 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 2.9 – 3.4 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | VGK on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −9 | +4 | VGK: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +45 Elo | EDM 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 58.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.314th of 31 |
| 1st of 312.4 | Goals allowed | 3.729th of 31 |
| 4th of 31+1.0 | Margin | −0.422nd of 31 |
| 13th of 3150.6% | Shot share | 53.6%5th of 31 |
| 1st of 3192.8% | Save percentage | 87.7%31st of 31 |
| 21st of 314–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 31 |
| 10th of 316–5 | Road vs home | 3–525th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.